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Horizon 21 — Advancing Global Environmental Security
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FOI-IES Symposium
The Geopolitics of Climate Change
What will be the geopolitical consequences of climate change? What does climate change imply in terms of energy security? How should the EU see the Arctic? Trying to provide some elements of response to these questions was the theme of a Symposium organised by the Institute for Environmental Security in cooperation with the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) on 23 April 2008 in Brussels. On this occasion, more than 55 participants gathered to listen to Peter Haldén's introduction of his book The Geopolitics of Climate Change.
After reiterating that, with regards to climate change, the costs of inaction largely outclass the costs of mitigation and adaptation, Peter Haldén insisted on the necessity to proceed with caution when linking climate change to 'traditional' security. Militarisation and securisation of climate change may have problematic results on international relations in general as well as on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in particular, Haldén said. He concluded by saying that the climate, in itself, is not a threat. Instead, the consequences of climate change are conditioned by the institutional, social, economic, political and historical context of the societies facing them. Whether climate change will be a causal factor in increasing the risk of conflict depends on existing patterns of intra- and inter-state politics as much as it does on the effects of climate change.
The debate was followed by presentations on the Strategic Importance of the Arctic by John Patrick Crump, the Geopolitics of Energy Security by Lucia van Geuns and the EU Approach to Climate Change and International Security by Ikaros Moushouttas. John Crump introduced the problematic of the Arctic, a vast and resource-rich region in which neighbouring countries show a growing interest. Crump explained that the Arctic is seriously hit by climate change, with a rate of warming twice as high as the rest of the world. The melting of winter ice, however, opens new trade routes as well as new accesses to fossil fuels which will constitute elements of conflicts if no preventive international agreements are reached. In concluding, Crump insisted in the necessity to work in close cooperation with the indigenous people of the Arctic. Finally, Tom Spencer, who moderated the debate, pleaded for a greater integration of the Arctic in the EU Neighbourhood Policy.
Lucia van Geuns approached the problematic of fossil-fuels and fossil-based economies in a context of exploding demand whereas oil and gas fields appear inequitably distributed and state-owned companies predominant. The likely decreasing access to such energies for Western countries should create incentives for energy diversification and the development of new transportation technologies. To this end, one of the participants expressed his thought that oil price should reach even higher levels in order to open new markets for the development of new technologies.
Finally, Ikaros Moushouttas spoke about the high priority given by the EU to the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, highlighting though that the security aspects where not yet at the core of the EU strategy. Moushouttas explained that the Commission and Council's secretariat organised a workshop last September in cooperation with international organisations leading to a report which was presented to European leaders last March. Followed by a set of general recommendations, the report pointed that "climate change is already having a profound impact on international security, that this impact will intensify in the years ahead and that we need urgent action to safeguard our own interests while contributing to world peace and stability". In concluding, Moushouttas stressed that this report is not the end of a process but rather the beginning of one, opening the doors for future concerted action across the pillars of the European Union policies. If supported by the EU Presidency, the report will hopefully soon bring the security aspects of climate change on the table of a proposed "European Security Council".
After all, this Symposium clearly demonstrated that current climate change challenges can be a very interesting basis of some renewed geopolitical thinking.
Climate Negotiations - Europe can show how change can be achieved
Report of Conference 'From Bali to Poznan - New Issues New Challenges' Now Available!
26 April 2008
"The Bali climate talks have failed to deliver the tangible results so many craved. However, even the weariest pessimist would have to acknowledge the significant step that the Bali talks made, demonstrated by the agreement to hold global negotiations over the next two years leading to Copenhagen in 2009. In this context, Europe can show how change can be achieved. While it is currently not a major player, Europe still has a vital role to play as a torch-bearer, if not yet a consolidated political leader. Such vision is required now more than ever as Europe is hosting two COPs in succession, providing Europe with a special opportunity to demonstrate leadership".
These findings are among the key recommendations in the newly issued Report of the Conference ‘From Bali to Poznan – New Issues, New Challenges’ organised in December 2007 by the Institute for Environmental Security in cooperation with Globe Europe, Globe EU and e-Parliament. The Report is now available for download at http://www.envirosecurity.org/activities/diplomacy/gfsp/climate/.
The conference included a number of participants who had taken part in, and just returned from Bali, members of the European Parliament, members of national parliaments, as well as experts from the European Council, European Commission, and European Social and Economic Committee, EU Member States and other governments, the US military, UNDP, OSCE, CFSP, businesses, the Club of Rome and other prominent NGOs, think-tanks, and academic and research bodies. In all, over 100 experts took part, including 28 speakers, and another eighty persons expressed interest in being informed of the results and about follow-up activities.
The conference began with an overview of the events at Bali, followed by an examination of technological solutions, most notably solar power, to global energy requirements. An overview of the security implications of climate change was given along with a discussion of the foreign policy implications of the links between environment, security and sustainable development. The summation of the conference was provided by a panel of distinguished rapporteurs and closing speakers and included suggestions for the way forward to Poznan for Europe and the world. The principal points raised in the discussions are reflected in this report.
The Report contains a summary of the discussions, the conference programme, a list of participants, pictures, a list of speakers, biographies and many other features. It is downloadable for free and must be seen as a background tool for policy-makers containing concrete proposals and suggestions for the forthcoming UNCCC COP 14 which is to be held in Poznan in December 2008.
Conference Website | Conference Poster | Conference Report
Solana Sounds Alarm over Climate Change Threats
European Commission warns for resource conflicts, environmental refugees, water shortages and floods
13 March 2008
Europe must prepare for increased competition over dwindling resources, waves of environmental refugees and resource conflicts. The impacts of the changing climate, such as reduction of arable land, widespread shortage of water, diminishing food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts, can exacerbate existing tensions and instability in the world.
These security risks posed by climate change are the subject of a report by the European Commission and EU's High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, that was presented to the European Council on March 13, 2008. The report considers the impact of climate change on international security and, in particular, Europe's own security, thereby indicating potential EU responses.
It is expected that climate change will fuel existing conflicts over depleting resources. Moreover, in coastal regions, such as in China, India, the Caribbean and Central America, sea-level rise and more frequent natural disasters pose a serious threat to the infrastructure and regional economies. Also, receding coastlines and submergence of large areas could result in loss of territory, including entire countries such as small island states.
Because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity, Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to climate change. The report states that increasing droughts and rising temperatures will have a significant negative impact on regions highly vulnerable to conflict, such as the Horn of Africa. Due to poor harvests, several areas on the African continent may face food insecurity. As the UN expects millions of "environmental" migrants by 2020, Europe must anticipate increasing migratory pressure.
The European Council welcomed the report and underlined the importance of this issue. It invited the Council of Ministers to examine the paper and to submit recommendations on appropriate follow-up action, in particular, on how to intensify cooperation with third countries and regions regarding the impact of climate change on international security by December 2008 at the latest.
Read the Climate Change and International Security paper
New BICC Database Service
Natural Resource Wealth and Conflict
12 March 2008
On 12 March 2008, BICC presented a new English data base service, the Resource Conflict Monitor (RCM). With the support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, BICC experts have been able to develop a data base on 90 resource-rich countries, which over the past eleven years gives an insight into the effects of resource governance on the relationship between natural resources and violent conflict. This website can from now on be directly accessed at www.resource-conflict-monitor.org.
“Conflicts are by no means the logical consequence of the existence of natural resources and their use by different parties. Greater efforts are needed to test how a better understanding of the way in which natural resources are governed could contribute to conflict prevention and transformation measures. This is exactly where the BICC Resource Conflict Monitor steps in,” stresses Peter J. Croll, Director of BICC.
The importance of resource governance for the resource-conflict dynamic can be shown with two examples: The export of timber, diamonds and minerals supplies Botswana with the necessary funds for the development of the country. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) shows a totally different picture. Here, the wealth of natural resources can indeed be called a curse, as it contributed to the financing of bloody conflicts, while the population suffered from extreme poverty, corruption and the failure of its government.
One look at the Resource Conflict Monitor provides more facts. Charts give a direct overview of conflicts, resource governance and the involvement in international control and protection regimes. We learn about the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): From 1997 to 2005, a highly violent conflict raged across the country (source: Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research) which only abated in 2005 and 2006. Resource governance comprises indicators such as regime type, civil liberties, freedom of assembly and association, workers’ rights as well as the compliance with international agreements (source: Freedom House, World Bank, BICC, etc.). The rate here lies between 2 and 3 on a scale of 10 points. The compliance with international regimes is measured with the Resource Regime Compliance Index (RRCI) in an independent curve, which indicates the commitment to twenty international agreements, amongst which are the Convention of the Safety and Health in Mines, the Convention against Child Labor, but also the Kyoto-Protocol on ecological questions and the Kimberley Process for the trade with conflict-free diamonds. The curve moves between 2 and 8 and shows that commitment to international control regimes has apparently received very low priority during the war in the DRC.
In Botswana, there is a totally different picture: no conflict in the past eleven years; resource governance lies at an average of 6.29, and the curve of the Resource Regime Compliance Index lies between 7 and 9.
The Resource Conflict Monitor combines secondary data on natural resources, conflict and resource governance for 90 countries. “The data base provides an empirical measure of resource governance with the aim to contribute to discussions on new policy options and instruments to improve and support good resource governance in conflict prone developing countries,” BICC expert, Jolien Schure, explains. Based on the evaluation of the comprehensive data, BICC concludes that improving resource governance, including the integration of international control regimes and conventions, should be a key focus of development assistance. Resource governance, good governance and transparency are fostered by the cooperation on the international, regional, national and local level.
Launch of Transboundary Conservation Programme
Protection of mountain gorillas brings African countries together
20 February 2008
Rwanda, Uganda and the DR Congo have launched a massive joint conservation programme in the Central Albertine Rift. An agreement was signed today in the Ugandan capital Kampala, signifying the official start of the joint transboundary conservation programme. This programme, embedded in a 10-year action plan, with a 30- year vision, aims at protecting the environment in the Central Albertine Rift, regardless of geographical boundaries.
Apart from better access to drinking water, people in the region will profit from increasing ecotourism in and around the transboundary Virunga-Bwindi region. This mountainous region is the habitat of the world’s last populations of mountain gorillas. The spectacular mountain gorilla tours are a major contributor to the tourism package of the three countries.
The development and implementation of the plan is sponsored by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A core secretariat is jointly established by the three respective states to foresee the implementation of the action plan, together with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).
The adopted programme recognizes the need to deal with interrelated problems - poverty, environmental degradation and insecurity - in a joint approach, as IES had advocated in recent years. The transboundary conservation programme combines nature conservation with poverty alleviation and conflict resolution, by stimulating park authorities in Rwanda, Uganda and the DR Congo to work more closely together.
More information on the Central Albertine Rift | Poster of Virunga-Bwindi region (PDF - 2,6 Mb)
