Institute for Environmental Security
Advancing Global Environmental Security through
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EnviroSecurity Action Guide
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable, push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.
Publication website ( PDF - www.edf.org )
|Author(s)||Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall|
|Publisher||Global Business Network report|
|Date / Journal Vol No.||2003|
1 - ES and foreign and security policy (Mainstreaming environmental factors into foreign and security policy including energy and food security, and security related to other resources such as land, water, living marine resources, terrestrial biodiversity)
4 - ES monitoring, mapping and early warning
5 - ES risk and needs assessment and management