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Impacts of Climate Change: A system vulnerability approach to consider the potential impacts  to 2050 of a mid-upper greenhouse gas emissions scenario image

Impacts of Climate Change: A system vulnerability approach to consider the potential impacts to 2050 of a mid-upper greenhouse gas emissions scenario

Climate change poses unique challenges to U.S. national security and interests. Yet current approaches and methods for understanding climate change and its impacts fall short in their efforts to help us anticipate and prepare for these eventualities. This white paper is intended to help imagine potential impacts of climate change and to develop alternative analytical approaches for understanding climate change disruptions.
In this paper, we explore several of the possible impacts of continued, relatively unrestrained greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next half-century. These impacts, although not always highly likely, are plausible. In particular, we focus on already stressed systems that are vulnerable to being driven over the edge or past a tipping point by either radical or gradual shifts in climate. By doing so, we offer an alternative, analytic approach ? a ?system vulnerability approach? ? to understanding and anticipating climate change disruptions. We conclude by considering both the security implications of the climate impacts discussed in this paper, and the analytic opportunities provided by the systems-vulnerabilities approach.

Publication website ( PDF - media.washingtonpost.com )

Author(s)Global Business Network
PublisherGlobal Business Network
Place publishedSan Francisco
Date / Journal Vol No.June 2007
Pages24
 
 

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