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Impacts of Climate Change: A system vulnerability approach to consider the potential impacts to 2050 of a mid-upper greenhouse gas emissions scenario
Climate change poses unique challenges to U.S. national security and interests. Yet current approaches and methods for understanding climate change and its impacts fall short in their efforts to help us anticipate and prepare for these eventualities. This white paper is intended to help imagine potential impacts of climate change and to develop alternative analytical approaches for understanding climate change disruptions.
In this paper, we explore several of the possible impacts of continued, relatively unrestrained greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next half-century. These impacts, although not always highly likely, are plausible. In particular, we focus on already stressed systems that are vulnerable to being driven over the edge or past a tipping point by either radical or gradual shifts in climate. By doing so, we offer an alternative, analytic approach ? a ?system vulnerability approach? ? to understanding and anticipating climate change disruptions. We conclude by considering both the security implications of the climate impacts discussed in this paper, and the analytic opportunities provided by the systems-vulnerabilities approach.
Publication website ( PDF - media.washingtonpost.com )
|Author(s)||Global Business Network|
|Publisher||Global Business Network|
|Place published||San Francisco|
|Date / Journal Vol No.||June 2007|
1 - ES and foreign and security policy (Mainstreaming environmental factors into foreign and security policy including energy and food security, and security related to other resources such as land, water, living marine resources, terrestrial biodiversity)
8 - Natural disasters and climate change mitigation and adaptation